What’s coming up (this week & next)
Week 8 (Oct 23–27) highlights: Vikings @ Chargers on TNF; Cowboys @ Broncos, Bills @ Panthers, Giants @ Eagles Sunday; Packers @ Steelers on SNF. Lines are posted across majors (DraftKings/ESPN BET/FanDuel aggregations).
Week 9 (Oct 30–Nov 3) tease: Ravens @ Dolphins on TNF; full slate Sunday incl. Bears @ Bengals and Chiefs @ Bills. Schedule confirmed.
Top 3 UnderDAWG Upset Opportunities
Implied win probability = 100 / (moneyline + 100). We show the current best widely posted price and why it bites.
1) Steelers (+154) vs. Packers — implied 39.37%
Best price snapshot: +154 (screen consensus).
Why the bite works: Revenge SNF in Pittsburgh for Rodgers; Green Bay’s pass‑rush rotation is thinned (Lukas Van Ness not optimistic to play). Home dog in a primetime coin‑flip vibe.
Key injuries (affecting the handicap):
Packers: DE Lukas Van Ness (foot) likely out.
Steelers: WR Calvin Austin III trending toward a return (shoulder), small boost to WR depth.
2) Cowboys (+135) at Broncos — implied 42.55%
Best price snapshot: +135 (major book screen).
Why the bite works: Denver’s second level takes a hit with Dre Greenlaw suspended; that’s bad news versus Dallas’ space game and YAC. Mile High is nasty, but losing a signal‑caller at LB matters in run‑fit and option rules.
Key injuries:
Broncos: LB Dre Greenlaw suspended Week 8; LB Jonah Elliss questionable (shoulder).
Cowboys: CB Trevon Diggs in protocol/questionable; LB DeMarvion Overshown expected back at practice. Net: slight Dallas O edge, minor Dallas D concern.
3) Saints (+195) vs. Buccaneers — implied 33.90%
Best price snapshot: +195 (screen consensus).
Why the bite works: Tampa’s offense is a different animal without Mike Evans (clavicle, out weeks). Divisional home dog getting nearly +200 against a favorite missing its WR1? Classic UnderDAWG material.
Key injuries:
Buccaneers: WR Mike Evans out multiple weeks (clavicle).
Saints: Erik McCoy (C) season‑ending biceps; Kendre Miller (RB) ACL—downgrades to NO OL/RB room (priced in, but note it).
Quick Injury Radar (games you asked about)
Bills @ Panthers: Bryce Young (ankle) out; Andy Dalton starting. (If you’re tempted by CAR, know the price is juicy but the QB downgrade is real.) Current markets sit around CAR +285 to +310.
Giants @ Eagles: NYG are sizable dogs (~+280 ML). Philly’s DL shuffling continues; Brandon Graham just rejoined the roster. (Fun narrative spot, but our edge graded better elsewhere.)
Notes on the Numbers
Odds above are live snapshots from reputable screens and can move; always line‑shop before you fire.
UnderDAWG’s Locker‑Room Talk
We’re not here to be cute—we’re here to cash sensible barks. Home dog in primetime (PIT), a live road offense facing a shorthanded LB group (DAL), and a divisional home dog vs. a favorite missing its WR1 (NO). Keep the card tight, the staking saner, and the selfies off X until the tickets grade.
Responsible Wagering PSA: IF YOU CHOOSE TO, Only bet what you can afford to lose. If you need help, call/text 1‑800‑GAMBLER (or your state’s helpline).
Remember I Don’t Know Sh#t about Sports…. (I’m just barking!)